Hello, fellow degenerates. UFC 109 is right around the corner (Feb 6th), and John asked me to do a preview with my betting picks for the event…
This card has a lot of juicy underdogs on it, which I will definitely be laying some money on! If you’re new to MMA betting, my first rule of advice is to stay away from heavy favorites. That’s the quickest way to lose your money and ruin your night.
BTW if you need a primer on how mma odds work, I suggest reading this article -> MMA odds explained . That’ll be useful if you’re a bit confused…
Here are my picks for UFC 109….
Randy Couture (-430) vs. Mark Coleman (+330)
This moneyline shocked me when it came out. I think they’re giving WAYYY too much credit to Couture in this one. I could see him being a -300 or -325 favorite, but to say he’s a -430 is pretty crazy.
Coleman is definitely not on the same level as Couture when it comes to conditioning (and fight skill in general), but when I see an underdog that has a legit chance at winning and I’m getting more than 3-1 on my money, I’ll be laying some coin on him.
I think Coleman keeps this match close and wins via TKO (big prediction, for a dog but I like him here)
My bet: 1 unit on Mark Coleman at +330
Mike Swick (-225) vs. Paulo Thiago (+185)
This was supposed to be a rematch from UFC 95, when Thiago knocked Josh Koscheck out with an uppercut. However Koscheck has since pulled out with an injury and will be replaced by Mike Swick.
Thiago is 12-1 in his MMA career, and has only suffered a loss to Jon Fitch. I can give him a pass for that fight since Fitch is an incredible fighter and not many guys will hang with him.
Mike Swick is coming off a loss in England where he took on Dan Hardy. In my honest opinion this fihgt should be pretty close to even, so with Thiago getting some good odds as the underdog, I will definitely make a value bet on him for this bout.
My Bet: Paulo Thiago 1 Unit at +185
Matt Serra (-150) vs. Frank Trigg (+120)
This is my prediction for fight of the night! These guys are gonna put on one hell of a fight, and I think it will go well for Matt Serra.
Serra is coming off 2 losses to Matt Hughes and GSP – and Trigg is coming off a loss to Josh Koscheck. I don’t think either of these guys are going to turn it around and this will probably be one of the last fights in both of their careers.
However, of the two, I think Serra is the much better fighter and has a lot more to win in this fight. He doesn’t want to go out being the loser of 3 straight fights. I think Serra wins this one via unanimous decision.
My bet: 1.5 units to win 1 unit on Matt Serra at -150
You can get updated odds on these fights at my UFC odds site…
Leave a comment if you have any thoughts on the fights. I like to talk MMA!
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